According to Marca, if UEFA boycotts and withdraws from the World Cup, models predict Argentina will win the title.
"The relationship between UEFA and FIFA is currently at a low point because the latter intends to sell some of the World Cup rights to businesses for commercial development. Therefore, if FIFA, under Infantino's leadership, insists on proceeding with this plan, UEFA is considering boycotting the partnership."
But can the World Cup still be held normally without European national teams? Of the 23 World Cups held to date, 13 have been won by European teams, with Spain being the most recent champion. To address this hypothetical scenario, CasinoHawks has developed a supercomputer probability model based on the current strength of each team to predict what the 2030 World Cup would look like if a boycott were to occur.
The model performed 100,000 simulations of the tournament and calculated an average of the simulation results to eliminate outliers. Participating teams will be determined according to FIFA rankings and the pre-determined quota allocations of each continental federation.
The key prediction is that Argentina will defeat Brazil in the final to reclaim the world championship title. Argentina's overall probability of winning is 28%, while their final opponent Brazil's is 26%—Argentina's chances of winning are 2 percentage points higher than the "Samba Army's".
However, the most surprising aspect of this prediction is not the champion's outcome, but rather the premise that the World Cup will eventually expand to 64 teams, a proposal that has not been endorsed by many countries. With all UEFA teams absent, a large number of vacant positions will be created.
Therefore, many countries will make their World Cup debut, including Guatemala, Bahrain, Uganda, Thailand, Vietnam, Mozambique, and Madagascar. Furthermore, Nigeria will become only the second African team in history to advance to the World Cup semi-finals.
